Freight and Logistics News and Market Update

Air

• Air cargo demand has remained high through an unpredictable peak season, supported by resilient demand despite ongoing trade uncertainty and a volatile tariff environment. Rates rose 2.4% week-over-week in mid-December, bringing them nearly on par with the same time last year. Asia Pacific rates led overall growth, while North America saw mixed results across regional trade lanes. Central & South America remained the exception, with spot rates falling 7% week-over- week. Carriers globally are continuing to fine tune their networks and adjust capacity as peak season comes to an end.
• Following the removal of the US de minimis trade exemption, air freight imports from China into the US declined sharply. However, the drop in volume has been more than offset by increased trade from Taiwan and Vietnam, signaling a shift in trans-Pacific air freight flows. Imports from Taiwan and Vietnam into the US rose 91% and 80% year-over-year respectively, with high tech, consumer electronics and industrial equipment accounting for most of the volume.

Ocean

• US freight demand is expected to remain subdued in 2026, with container imports forecast to be flat or slightly down and trucking and LTL markets in a three-year slump. Retailers are keeping inventories lean after months of heavy imports, while cautious consumers, weak manufacturing orders and a soft housing market continue to limit freight recovery despite steady GDP growth. Intermodal volumes remain a bright spot and exports are holding up, but analysts warn 2026 could be one of the weakest growth years for US freight in decades.
• US port officials say stronger data sharing with carriers and supply chain partners has helped prevent a repeat of the severe congestion seen in 2021–22, but remains critical ahead of the next cargo surge. Leaders from major gateways noted that disputes over proprietary data continue to limit full visibility, even as poor communication was a key contributor to past disruptions. With ports now operating well below peak capacity, officials emphasized that broader information sharing and continued infrastructure investment will be essential to maintain fluid operations as volumes rise again.
• The Premier Alliance confirmed its 2026 network will continue routing services from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and the US East Coast around southern Africa, avoiding the Red Sea due to ongoing security risks. Alliance members said safety and operational stability remain the priority, even as some carriers cautiously test Suez Canal transits. Analysts noted that fewer port calls and new vessel deliveries could support improved schedule reliability, though a full return to the Red Sea remains uncertain.
• The rollout of larger vessels on major routes from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean has pushed mid-size ships into secondary corridors such as the trans-Atlantic and Latin America, spreading structural overcapacity beyond core east-west trades. Analysts warn this cascading effect is exposing a deeper imbalance, with excess capacity concentrated among large ships while smaller vessels critical to regional and feeder networks continue to age and grow scarce. As alliance reshuffles and Red Sea diversions unwind, this imbalance is likely to become more pronounced.
• S&P Global Ratings forecasts US port container volumes will decline about 2% in 2026 as uncertainty around US trade and tariff policy keeps shippers cautious despite steady economic growth. While trade with China may stabilize temporarily, record-high tariffs and reshoring efforts continue to weigh on import demand. Port operators and industry groups similarly expect weak volumes next year, with a potential recovery pushed to 2027 if trade policy becomes more stable.

Air

• Bringer Air Cargo has launched the first direct international wide-body cargo flight from Miami to Navegantes, marking a milestone for air freight connectivity in southern Brazil. The carrier plans to expand the service to three or four weekly flights as demand grows, strengthening trade flows into one of the country’s fastest-growing import regions.

Ocean

• Peak fruit export season in Chile and Peru, which runs from December to January, is tightening vessel space on South America West Coast routes and extending booking lead times from one to two weeks to three to four weeks.
• ICTSI is expanding and modernizing its Rio de Janeiro terminal to increase capacity, accommodate larger vessels and help redistribute cargo demand away from Brazil’s congested Santos port. The terminal operator is also moving forward with a long-term partnership to operate Durban’s main container terminal after a legal challenge was dismissed. Together, the projects are expected to improve efficiency, expand capacity and strengthen port competitiveness across South America and Africa.
• Seaboard Marine is revamping its US Gulf Coast services with a new Gulf service that consolidates port calls between Houston and New Orleans and key markets in Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia to improve reliability and transit times. The updated rotation largely aligns with CAFTA trade lanes as US Central America trade remains elevated but faces policy uncertainty. The move reflects shifting cargo patterns in the Gulf, with volumes growing in Houston while New Orleans traffic to the region has softened.

Air

• Southeast Asia is gaining share in air cargo shipments to the US, with November volumes up more than 42% year-over-year and year-to-date tonnage rising over 27%. Strong demand from markets including Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia is tightening capacity ahead of the holiday peak, helping offset declines from China and lift overall Asia Pacific air cargo volumes to the US. Global air cargo demand remains steady, with worldwide tonnage up 5% year-over-year in November.
• Southeast Asia’s shift into higher value exports such as pharmaceuticals, perishables and aerospace is driving stronger demand for specialised handling and cold chain reliability. Capacity constraints at secondary airports and complex customs procedures continue to introduce transit and compliance risks. Integrated operators are addressing these gaps through end to end solutions that combine air freight, ground handling, trucking and long haul main deck access, positioning them to support the region’s growing need for high integrity multimodal cargo capabilities.
• Air cargo demand in 2026 is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asia leading much of the recovery. Vietnam is emerging as a key export hub for US laptop shipments, while regional demand for eCommerce and electronics continues to grow. As Southeast Asia expands its role in global supply chains, it is expected to remain a primary driver of air cargo growth next year.

Ocean

• Australia’s competition regulator says government action may be needed to rein in record-high terminal access charges, which continue to rise despite spare port capacity and stable costs. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission found terminal operators are earning historic profits, with access fees far outpacing investment in port infrastructure, leaving shippers with little choice but to absorb higher costs that ultimately affect businesses and consumers.
• Cargo bookings on Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trade lanes surged in December as shippers locked in space ahead of February’s Lunar New Year. Demand has pushed carriers to deploy record capacity while cutting blank sailings, sending spot rates sharply higher across both routes. Volumes are expected to stay firm into January, but uncertainty around a potential return to Red Sea transits is complicating inventory planning and logistics across Europe.
• Carriers have managed to keep trans-Pacific spot rates from falling sharply despite declining US imports from Asia and rising capacity. Rather than relying on large, infrequent increases, lines are using smaller, rapid-fire GRIs while quietly offering discounted bullet rates to protect market share. With capacity set to rise further ahead of Lunar New Year and demand weakening, maintaining a pricing floor will become increasingly difficult in early 2026.

Air

• Air cargo spot rates increased about 3% week-on-week in early December, with Europe up 6%, as peak season demand supported pricing, WorldACD data shows. Despite the uptick, rates remain below last year, highlighting a less pronounced peak than in recent years.

Ocean

• Cargo bookings on Asia-Europe ocean routes surged in December, with demand expected to remain strong into January as shippers secured space ahead of February’s Lunar New Year. The booking increase has driven record capacity deployment and fewer blank sailings across Asia–North Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trades.
• Xeneta reported that CMA CGM will operate its INDAMEX service with a full loop via the Suez Canal, cutting transit times by roughly two weeks compared with routing around the Cape of Good Hope. While this marks a structural shift for the service, analysts caution it does not signal a large-scale return to the Red Sea and could add capacity to an already oversupplied market, increasing downward pressure on freight rates.

Air

• A new white paper from Pharma.Aero and The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) warns that Sub-Saharan Africa’s limited access to air cargo capacity is constraining healthcare delivery and economic growth. The region receives just 2% of global airfreight capacity despite heavy reliance on air transport for vaccines, medicines and other cold-chain healthcare products. The study calls for coordinated investment to strengthen air cargo connectivity and support both medical supply chains and high-value exports.
• Saudia Cargo and CJ Logistics signed a new agreement to strengthen air cargo services and cross border supply chain connectivity. The partnership is designed to accelerate cargo movement, expand network reach and improve service reliability. It reinforces Saudi Arabia’s push to position itself as a leading regional and global logistics hub.

Ocean

• Freight rates on India–Europe routes rose $300 to $500 per FEU in December as carriers reduced capacity through blank sailings. West India to North Europe rates rebounded to $1,100–$1,400 per FEU from two year lows in November. Carriers are planning modest mid month rate hikes and network adjustments, though demand remains uncertain ahead of the seasonal grape export period.
• DP World has launched a new weekly maritime service linking Dubai’s Mina Rashid with Iraq’s Umm Qasr Port, cutting transit time to 36 hours. The service can carry up to 145 accompanied trailers per sailing, with drivers remaining onboard to provide a fully integrated end to end logistics solution. Designed to improve speed, lower costs and increase reliability, the route significantly reduces the time and complexity of overland transport which can take more than 10 days.
• CMA CGM will begin routing its INDAMEX service through the Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India Pakistan and the US East Coast, reducing full loop transit time by about two weeks to 77 days. The move marks a meaningful step toward a potential Red Sea reopening and allows CMA CGM to remove two vessels from the service, highlighting how broader returns could quickly add capacity and pressure freight rates. Other major carriers remain cautious and have not committed to large scale Red Sea operations.

• The US Trade Representative will phase in new tariffs on Nicaraguan imports not covered by CAFTA-DR, starting at 0% in 2026 and rising to 10% in 2027 and 15% in 2028. The targeted approach responds to labor and human rights violations while aiming to limit disruption to US supply chains after public feedback warned broader restrictions could harm businesses and workers in both countries.
• The Federal Circuit ruled that specialized baby formulas for children with chronic medical conditions qualify as duty free medicaments under HTSUS 3004, overturning a prior trade court decision. The court held that Chapter 30’s exclusion of foods applies only to general dietary products, not medically formulated preparations used therapeutically under medical supervision, even when no active pharmaceutical ingredients are present.
• CBP issued a correction to reciprocal tariff filing instructions for South Korean goods, clarifying that HTSUS 9903.02.80 applies when the Column 1 duty rate is below 15%. For entries on or after November 14, 2025, products with Column 1 rates of 15% or higher use 9903.02.79 with no additional duty, while products below 15% must be filed under 9903.02.80 to reach a total 15% tariff, with zero duty reported under the standard HTSUS line.